Page 119 - ESCARPMENT MAGAZINE | Winter 2013

FRONT PAGE HEADLINES in The Globe andMail
in November heralded a two-year battle over the pro-
posed “Mega Quarry” with the headline “Coalition of
farmers and urban foodies halts quarry”. Armed with the
support of farmers, urban foodies, artists, environmental-
ists and native bands, renowned chef Michael Stadtlän-
der rallied the Canadian Chef’s Congress. In 2011
Foodstock brought over 30,000 people to a farmer’s
field in the area. This year’s Soupstock took the endeav-
our to Toronto’s Woodbine Park where 120 chefs par-
ticipated and lured 28,000 supporters. The Mega
Quarry would have affected over 2,300 acres of some
of Ontario’s best farmland pumping over 600-million
litres of water out of the pit each day. The Highland com-
pany has now withdrawn their application citing lack of
support in the community. On the subject of quarries,
Duntroon Quarry’s expansion received all the ap-
provals it needed at the Consolidated Hearing Board
following a 13-month hearing, however, the Niagara
Escarpment Commission has asked the court to deter-
mine if the board made errors by failing to apply the Ni-
agara Escarpment Plan and has requested a judicial
review.
Another key topic of discussion province wide is the lat-
est MPAC assessments recently mailed to every house-
hold. The assessments have property owners raising
alarm bells and floodingMPAC with requests for recon-
sideration. Some property assessment have risen over
50 per cent!
Pundits, economists, and analysts are all providing inter-
pretations on the current real estate market from com-
mentaries such as “Canada’s housing market is cooling
rapidly in the wake of government changes to mortgage
insurance”. Economists such as CIBC’s Benjamin Tal
have been quoted as saying for some time that a modest
housing correction is in the cards. However, Canadian
houses are still affordable because of low interest rates.
Some marginal buyers may no longer qualify for a mort-
gage now that amortization periods have been short-
ened. Mortgage brokers are now saying that new rules
have tightened up mortgage lending knocking 17 per
cent of potential buyers out of the market. [17 per cent
of the high ratio mortgages approved in 2010 would
not be approved today] This is not only impacting first-
time buyers but also has a domino effect on move up
buyers having a tougher time finding eligible buyers.
According to CREA’s chief economist, Gregory Klump,
this is likely to result in slower momentum for resale hous-
ing activity. But job growth is continuing at a modest
pace, interest rates remain low, so we should not see a
dramatic swing in prices. And, that is holding true for the
Georgian Triangle Association of Realtors [GTAR].
While Toronto has seen prices fall 3.61 per cent in No-
vember so too did listings so market conditions remained
tight with competition between buyers. But, there have
been some diverging trends across the country and
smaller and more affordable markets like the Georgian
Triangle have remained stable. Canadians believe in
home ownership and the stability of real estate over the
long-term continues to fuel its appeal. Buyers are being
more judicious, researching meticulously and not paying
more than they feel the property is worth. The KEY is to
have the sellers IN STEP. Buyers are prepared to move
forward and take the plunge where they perceive value
and sellers are prepared to negotiate a deal.
In the Georgian Triangle, residential activity has varied
widely from area to area. Wasaga Beach has been the
hot spot with 415 sales since the beginning of 2012.
Collingwood is second with 318 sales followed by Blue
Mountains with 153, Clearview, 128, Grey Highlands,
128, Meaford, 91 and Mulmur, 6. Pricing remains af-
fordable in the Georgian Triangle with the average
price at $321,273 [down 1.3 per cent fromNovember
2011] However, average prices vary widely with TBM
at $509,785 versus Clearview at $312,955, Colling-
wood at $291,359, Wasaga Beach at $271,945 and
Meaford, $268,998. At the end of October, there were
8.8 months of inventory, down from 10.1 months at the
end of August 2012 and 11 months in October 2011.
The number of months of inventory is the number of
months it would take to sell current inventory at the cur-
rent rate of sales activity.
Resale housing demand slowed in August after the new
mortgage rules went into effect, rebounded in Septem-
ber and set a record in October. November was some-
what more sedate with monthly sales down 19 per cent
and dollar volume down 17 per cent. However, total
sales year-to-date [YTD] are up 7 percent with 1871
sales in 2012 compared to 1753 in 2011. Dollar vol-
ume was up 7 per cent with the figure reaching
$550,098,369 in 2012 YTD versus $513,970,001 in
2011. At the end of November, there were 2,149 ac-
tive listings, 2119 for November 2011. New listings in
November 2012 shrank by 9 per cent compared to No-
vember 2011. Total value of sales for the month of No-
vember 2012 was $39,592,950 compared to
$67,635,974 in October 2012. Monthly sales volume
in November 2011 reached $47,509,734.
Sales in all price categories have virtually matched YTD
figures in 2011 with the exception of the $300,000-
$349,999 range where there have been 191 sales in
2012 compared to 160 in 2011, the $500,000-
$599,999 category with 82 sales YTD and 60 in 2011
and the above $1,500,000 range with four sales this
year and seven last year. In each price range, the ma-
jority of sales were in the lower end of the category and
sales do not identify significant price reductions that may
have taken place to make the sale. In other words, stats
don’t provide a true reflection of the market particularly
if the listing price has experienced significant reductions
prior to the sale. *
BY ANTHEA WHITE
GEORGIAN TRIANGLE REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATES
escarpment
real estate
MARKET WATCH
119 Winter 2013 Escarpment Magazine