114
Escarpment Magazine Summer 2013
It would be
inappropriate to start this issue of Market Watch without acknowledging the person
whose shoes are being filled. AntheaWhite was a friend of the family for as far back as I can remember.
Later, she became a valued colleague and someone I did a lot of business with. The time and energy
she put into composing this piece quarterly was admirable, and led to an article positively brimming with
information and news. I can’t replace or duplicate what she did, but I hope that she would find my offering
satisfactory.
One of the big news stories of the day is the receding lake levels in Georgian Bay, and indeed Lake
Huron at large. One does not need any device to monitor water levels daily. The naked eye can measure
easily enough that the water levels in the Bay have dropped, and done so dramatically. The data is quite
compelling. The website
indicates that lake levels have dropped 5 feet in the past
15 years, and that the lake is losing between 7 and 12 BILLION gallons of water daily. There are other
more conservative estimates, and still others that say the Bay will gain 2 feet of water this year. Is this a
normal cyclical adjustment? Is the water running out the St. Clair River? Is this another example of global
warming at work? Opinions differ.
Since this is a real estate focused article, I suppose the best question to ask is “how is this affecting water-
front property values?” The short answer is that we are uncertain. There are so many factors to consider
in the higher end segment of the local real estate market, that it would be irresponsible to point the finger
at water levels and say that they are driving down property values. Anecdotally though, the real estate
professionals I have been talking to have been hearing a lot of the same questions. “How far out will it
go?” “Can I use my boat here?” “Howmuch will it cost me to make my waterfront useable?” Valid ques-
tions when you are about to part company with a significant amount of money to buy your dream home.
Water levels affect recreation. The Thornbury yacht club was counting the water level drop and rise in
centimeters leading up their annual spring boat launch on Mother’s Day. Some sail boats with deep
keels had a real issue making it to the haul out area last fall. Many were scraping the bottom just trying
to get to the crane. Then the water levels fell further. They came up again in the spring, but were still dan-
gerously low. It is so tight for keeled boats that some of the experienced crews at launch were thankful
for the North wind that increased water levels in the harbour by a few inches. Dredging is scheduled to
take place in Thornbury Harbour, but not likely until July. Proper permissions and permits must be sought.
Arguably, even non-waterfront homes may be affected by falling lake levels. Recreation and lifestyle
are a driving force for parts of the real estate market in the area. I don’t think people are going to stop
loving this terrific area because the water levels have declined, but it could, theoretically affect their
buying habits. It did 30 years ago when waterfront buyers had to factor in the cost of break-walls to
guard against the record high lake levels then. Now people are asking themselves about the cost of
dredging to make their waterfront more enjoyable to them. As noted above, if you are a sailor, you don’t
need to have waterfront property to be affected.
escarpment
REAL ESTATE
MARKET
watch
by
Desmond von Teichman
Broker of Record,
Owner Royal Le Page
Locations North Realty, Brokerage
